In recent years, Indonesia has found itself navigating an increasingly complex global and domestic environment. Intensifying geopolitical competition, shifting economic structures, and evolving political dynamics are reshaping the conditions under which states maintain stability, sovereignty, and prosperity. For a country with Indonesia’s strategic geography, large population, and abundant resources, these changes present both opportunities and significant risks.

This policy brief explores the structural pressures that may shape Indonesia’s future trajectory. It identifies three interconnected fault lines—sovereignty, legitimacy, and prosperity—that could undermine Indonesia’s long term resilience if left unaddressed. Drawing on insights from the Indonesia Scenario Building and Policy Lab, the brief highlights how geopolitical realignment, institutional challenges, and economic constraints intersect, and outlines key strategic decisions that need to be taken to ensure Indonesia’s capacity to navigate the decades ahead.